Sekureva kweChina Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, iyo PMI yepasi rose yekugadzira muna Kurume 2022 yaive 54.1%, yakaderera 0.8 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura uye 3.7 muzana kubva panguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura.Kubva pane imwe nzvimbo yekuona, iyo PMI yekugadzira muAsia, Europe, America neAfrica zvose zvakawira kune zvakasiyana-siyana zvichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura, uye Europe yekugadzira PMI yakadonha zvakanyanya.

Iko kushanduka kweiyo index kunoratidza kuti pasi pehuviri kukanganiswa kwedenda uye geopolitical gakava, kukura kweindasitiri yekugadzira yepasirese kwakadzikira, kutarisana nekukatyamadzwa kwenguva pfupi, kudiwa kwechibvumirano uye tarisiro isina kusimba.Kubva pamaonero ekupa, kunetsana kwegeopolitical kwakawedzera dambudziko rekupa rinokonzereswa nedenda, mutengo wezvinhu zvakawanda zvinogadzirwa kunyanya simba uye zviyo wakawedzera inflation, uye kumanikidzwa kwemitengo yakakwira;kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakakonzera kuvharika kwekufambisa kwepasirese uye kudzikira kwekugona kwekupa.Kubva pakuona kwekudiwa, kudzikira kwekugadzira PMI yepasi rose kunoratidza dambudziko rekudonhedza kwekuda kusvika padanho rakati, kunyanya iyo PMI yekugadzira muAsia, Europe, America neAfrica yaramba, izvo zvinoreva kuti dambudziko rekushomeka kwekuda idambudziko rakajairika. kutarisana nenyika munguva pfupi.Kubva pamaonero ezvinotarisirwa, pakatarisana nekukanganisa kwakabatana kwedenda nekunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika, masangano epasi rose akadzikisa fungidziro yekukura kwehupfumi hwa2022. Musangano weUnited Nations weTrade and Development nguva pfupi yadarika wakaburitsa mushumo wakadzikisa kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika hwa2022. fungidziro kubva 3.6% kusvika 2.6%.

Muna Kurume 2022, iyo PMI yekugadzira yeAfrica yakadonha nezvikamu zviviri kubva pamwedzi wapfuura kusvika pa50.8%, zvichiratidza kuti huwandu hwekudzoreredza kwekugadzirwa kweAfrica hwadzikira kubva pamwedzi wapfuura.Denda reCOVID-19 raunza matambudziko mukusimudzira hupfumi hweAfrica.Panguva imwecheteyo, Fed's interest rate inokwira zvakare yakatungamirira kune kumwe kubuda.Dzimwe nyika dzemuAfrica dzakanetseka kudzikamisa mari yemumba kuburikidza nekukwidzwa kwemhindu uye kukumbira rubatsiro rwepasirese.

Kugadzira muAsia kunoramba kuchiderera, uye PMI inoramba ichiderera zvishoma

Muna Kurume 2022, iyo Asia yekugadzira PMI yakadonha ne0.4 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura kusvika 51.2%, kuderera kudiki kwemwedzi mina yakateedzana, zvichiratidza kuti kukura kweindasitiri yekugadzira yeAsia kwakaratidza kuenderera kuderera.Kubva pamaonero enyika huru, nekuda kwezvinhu zvenguva pfupi sekupararira kwedenda munzvimbo dzakawanda uye kupokana kwezvematongerwo enyika, kururamisa mukukura kwekugadzira kweChina ndicho chinhu chikuru mukudzikira muKukura kweiyo indasitiri yekugadzira yeAsia. .Tichitarisira ramangwana, hwaro hwekudzoreredza kwakadzikama kwehupfumi hweChina hauna kuchinja, uye maindasitiri mazhinji apinda zvishoma nezvishoma mumwaka wepamusoro wekugadzira nekushambadzira, uye pane nzvimbo yekupihwa kwemusika uye kuda kudzoreredza.Nekuedza kwakarongeka kwemitemo yakawanda, mhedzisiro yerutsigiro yakagadzikana yehupfumi ichaonekwa zvishoma nezvishoma.Pamusoro peChina, kukanganisa kwedenda kune dzimwe nyika dzeAsia kwakakurawo, uye PMI yekugadzira muSouth Korea neVietnam yadzikirawo zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura.

Pamusoro pekukanganisa kwedenda, kunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kushushikana kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakare zvakakosha zviri kukanganisa kusimukira kwenyika dzeAsia dziri kusimukira.Hupfumi hwakawanda hweAsia hunounza chikamu chikuru chesimba nechikafu, uye kukakavara kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakawedzera kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta nezvekudya, zvichikwidza mitengo yekushandisa kwehupfumi hukuru hweAsia.Iyo Fed yakatanga kutenderera kwemitengo yemitengo inokwira, uye kune njodzi yemari inoyerera ichibva munyika dzichiri kusimukira.Kudzika kudyidzana kwehupfumi, kuwedzera zvido zvehupfumi zvakafanana, uye kubata zvakanyanya mukana wekukura kwedunhu igwara rekuedza kwenyika dzeAsia kuramba kuvhunduka kwekunze.RCEP yakaunzawo kukurudzira kutsva mukugadzikana kwehupfumi hweAsia.

Kudzika kudzvinyirira kuEuropean indasitiri yekugadzira kwakabuda, uye iyo PMI yadonha zvakanyanya

Muna Kurume 2022, iyo European kugadzira PMI yaive 55.3%, yakaderera 1.6 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura, uye kuderera kwakawedzerwa kubva pamwedzi wapfuura kwemwedzi miviri yakateedzana.Kubva pakuona kwenyika huru, chiyero chekukura kwekugadzira munyika huru dzakadai seGermany, United Kingdom, France neItaly yakaderera zvikuru, uye PMI yekugadzira yakaderera zvikuru kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura, German kugadzira PMI yakaderera. nepamusoro pe1 muzana, uye PMI yekugadzira yeUnited Kingdom, France neItaly yakaderera nepamusoro pe2 muzana.IRussia yekugadzira PMI yakawira pasi pe45%, kudonha kweanopfuura 4 muzana.

Kubva pamaonero ekuchinja kwe index, pasi pesimba rembiri rekupokana kwe geopolitical uye denda, chiyero chekukura kweindasitiri yekugadzira yeEurope yakadzikira zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura, uye kuderera kwakawedzera.ECB yakacheka fungidziro yekukura kwehupfumi hweeurozone ye2022 kubva pa4,2% kuenda pa3.7%.Chirevo cheUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development chinoronga kudzikira kwakanyanya mukukura kwehupfumi mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzeWestern Europe.Panguva imwe cheteyo, kukakavara kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakakonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwekushomeka kwemitengo muEurope.Muna Kukadzi 2022, inflation munharaunda yeeuro yakakwira kusvika pa5.9 muzana, rekodhi yakakwira kubva pakazvarwa euro.Gwaro reECB rekuti “zviyereso” zvave kuchinjika zvakanyanya kuenda kunjodzi dziri kuwedzera inflation.Iyo ECB yakafunga nezvekuwedzera kuenzanisa mutemo wemari.

Kukura kwekugadzira muAmerica kwakadzikira uye PMI yadzikira

Muna Kurume 2022, iyo Manufacturing PMI muAmerica yakadonha 0.8 muzana mapoinzi kubva pamwedzi wapfuura kusvika pa56.6%.Dhata kubva kunyika huru dzinoratidza kuti PMI yekugadzira yeCanada, Brazil neMexico yakakwira kusvika kune madhigirii akasiyana-siyana kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura, asi US yekugadzira PMI yakaderera kubva pamwedzi wapfuura, nekuderera kweanopfuura 1 muzana, zvichikonzera kuderera kwakazara muPMI yeAmerican kugadzira indasitiri.

Iko kushanduka kwe index kunoratidza kuti kuderera kwekukura kwekukura kweindasitiri yekugadzira yeUS kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura ndicho chinhu chikuru mukuderera kwekukura kweindasitiri yekugadzira muAmerica.Chirevo cheISM chinoratidza kuti muna Kurume 2022, iyo US yekugadzira PMI yakadonha 1.5 muzana mapoinzi kubva pamwedzi wapfuura kusvika 57.1%.Sub-index inoratidza kuti kukura kwehuwandu uye kudiwa muindasitiri yekugadzira yeUS kwakadzikira zvakanyanya kana zvichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura.Indekisi yekugadzira uye maodha matsva yakadonha neinopfuura 4 muzana mapoinzi.Makambani anoshuma kuti chikamu chekugadzira cheUS chakatarisana nekudiwa kwechibvumirano, zvemukati nekunze zvekutengesa cheni zviri kuvharwa, kushomeka kwevashandi, uye kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu.Pakati pavo, dambudziko rekuwedzera kwemutengo rinonyanya kuoneka.Ongororo yeFed yengozi yekukwira kwemitengo yakashandukawo zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pa "yenguva pfupi" kuenda ku "maonero e inflation adzikira zvakanyanya."Nguva pfupi yadarika, iyo Federal Reserve yakadzikisa fungidziro yekukura kwehupfumi hwa2022, ichidzikisa zvakanyanya gross yemukati chigadzirwa chekukura kusvika 2.8% kubva pane yapfuura 4%.

Multi-factor superposition, yeChina yekugadzira PMI yakawira kumashure kune iyo contraction renji

Dhata yakaburitswa neNational Bureau of Statistics munaKurume 31 yakaratidza kuti muna Kurume, China yekugadzira kutenga maneja index (PMI) yaive 49.5%, yakaderera 0.7 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura, uye huwandu hwese hwebudiriro yeindasitiri yekugadzira hwakadonha.Kunyanya, kugadzirwa uye kudiwa kunopera kwakadzikira panguva imwe chete.Indekisi yekugadzira uye indekisi yeodha nyowani yakadonha ne0.9 uye 1.9 muzana mapoinzi zvichiteerana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura.Zvichikanganiswa nekushanduka-shanduka kwakanyanya kwemitengo yezvinhu zvepasi rose nezvimwe zvinhu, indekisi yemitengo yekutenga uye indekisi yemutengo wekare wefekitari yezvinhu zvakakura zvaive 66.1% uye 56.7%, zvichiteerana, yakakwira kupfuura 6.1 uye 2.6 muzana mwedzi wapfuura, zvese zvakakwira kusvika ingangoita 5-mwedzi yakakwirira.Pamusoro pezvo, mamwe emabhizinesi akaongororwa akashuma kuti nekuda kwekukanganisa kwedenda riripo, kusvika kwevashandi kwakanga kusina kukwana, zvinhu uye zvekufambisa zvakanga zvisiri nyore, uye kutenderera kwekutakura kwakawedzerwa.The supplier delivery time index yemwedzi uno yaiva 46.5%, pasi pe1.7 percentage points kubva pamwedzi wapfuura, uye kugadzikana kwekugadzira zvinhu zvekugadzira kwakakanganiswa kusvika pamwero wakati.

Muna March, iyo PMI yekugadzirwa kwepamusoro-soro yaiva 50.4%, iyo yakanga yakaderera kupfuura mwedzi wapfuura, asi yakaramba iri muhuwandu hwekuwedzera.Iyo yepamusoro-tech yekugadzira vashandi indekisi uye bhizinesi retarisiro indekisi yaive 52.0% uye 57.8%, zvichiteerana, yakakwira kupfuura iyo yakazara indasitiri yekugadzira ye3.4 uye 2.1 muzana mapoinzi.Izvi zvinoratidza kuti indasitiri yekugadzira yepamusoro-tech ine yakasimba kusimudzira kusimba, uye mabhizinesi anoramba aine tarisiro nezve remangwana musika kusimudzira.